If you have ever taught students basic biostatistics, run a journal club, or participated in an EBM course, you know the quizzical looks folks have when you discuss elements beyond the 2×2 table. Well, along comes Nate Silver.
I am a longtime fan and read his first blog before it migrated to the NYT (FiveThirtyEight). His reach is beyond national, and his daily output—shall we say prodigious—is mind blowing, and that speaks nothing of his sophistication and technical skill. You see, he plays with numbers, any kind of numbers. He cut his teeth first with major league baseball (ever hear of PECOTA?), and then migrated to election forecasting and politics. However, nothing is beyond his reach and if you can analyze it and smack it down, he will be the first and best to do it. Seriously, his reputation is pristine.
Now that I’ve dispensed with the preamble, I can advance us into the crux of the post. Simply, it’s Silver’s take on Bayes theorem. The explanation is in his new book (and the plug is incidental, as I have no affiliation with him or the publisher). However, the analogy he uses to impart the Bayes lesson is too delicious to pass up. Hope you like it as much as me.
Do not be afraid to utilize the tutorial tomorrow–as I have already put it through its paces. The lesson works:
About the Author: Bradley Flansbaum
Bradley Flansbaum, DO, MPH, MHM works for Geisinger Health System in Danville, PA in both the divisions of hospital medicine and population health. He began working as a hospitalist in 1996, at the inception of the hospital medicine movement. He is a founding member of the Society of Hospital Medicine and served as a board member and officer. He speaks nationally in promoting hospital medicine and has presented at many statewide meetings and conferences. He is also actively involved in house staff education.
Currently, he serves on the SHM Public Policy Committee and has an interest in payment policy, healthcare market competition, health disparities, cost-effectiveness analysis, and pain and palliative care. He is SHM’s delegate for the AMA House of Delegates.
Dr. Flansbaum received his undergraduate degree from Union College in Schenectady, NY and attended medical school at the New York College of Osteopathic Medicine. He completed his residency and chief residency in Internal Medicine at Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New York. He received his M.P.H. in Health Policy and Management at Columbia University.
He is a political junky, and loves to cook, stay fit, read non-fiction, listen to many genres of music, and is a resident of Danville, PA.
[…] Posted at The Hospitalist Leader on 10/7/2012 Brad Flansbaum, writer for The Hospitalist […]