In this single center cohort of 267 patients with acute variceal bleeding, researchers derived and validated a simple risk model to determine the 6-week risk of death. They found 3 parameters (Child-Pugh score, bacterial infection, and creatinine level) predicted 6 week death more accurately than either the Child-Pugh score alone, or the MELD score. Those at the lowest and highest risk groups had mortality rates of 8% and 73% respectively. This easy to calculate risk score can be valuable in predicting short-term risk in variceal bleeding (abstract).
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