The Blitz was a Nazi bombing campaign targeting London. It was designed to break the spirit of the British. Knowing London would be the centerpiece of the campaign, the British rather hastily established several psychiatric hospitals for the expected panic in the streets. However, despite 9 months of bombing, 43,000 civilians killed and 139,000 more wounded, the predicted chaos in the streets did not manifest. Civilians continued to work, industry continued to churn, and eventually, Hitler’s eye turned east toward Russia.
The surprising lack of pandemonium in London inspired Dr. MacCurdy, who chronicled his findings in a book The Structure of Morale, more recently popularized in Malcolm Gladwell’s David and Goliath. A brief summary of Dr. MacCurdy’s theory divides the targeted Londoners into the following categories:
- Direct Hit
- Near Miss
- Remote Miss
The direct hit group was defined as those killed by the bombing. However, As Dr. MacCurdy stated, “The morale of the community depends on the reaction of the survivors… Put this way, the fact is obvious, corpses do not run about spreading panic.”
A near miss were those for whom wounds were inflicted or loved ones were killed. This group felt the real repercussions of the bombing. However, with 139,000 wounded out of a city of 8 million people, they were a small minority.
The majority of Londoners, then, fit into the third group – the remote miss. These people faced a serious fear, but survived, often totally unscathed. The process of facing that fear without having panicked or having been harmed, then, led to “a feeling of excitement with a flavour of invulnerability.”
Therefore, rather than a city of millions running in fear in the streets, requiring military presence to control the chaos, London became a city of people who felt themselves, perhaps, invincible.
A similar threat passed through the world in the first several months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospitals were expected to be overrun, and ethics committees convened to discuss allocation of scarce ventilators. However, due, at least in part, to the impressive efforts of the populace of the United States of America, the majority of civilians did not feel the burden of this frightening disease. Certainly, in a few places, hospitals were overwhelmed, and resources were unavailable due to sheer numbers. These places saw those who suffered direct hits with the highest frequency. However, a disease with an infection fatality ratio recently estimated at 0.5-1%, with a relatively high rate of asymptomatic disease, led to a large majority of people who experienced the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States as a remote miss. COVID-19’s flattened first peak gave much of the population a sense of relief, and, perhaps, a “flavour of invulnerability.”
An anonymous, but concerned, household contact wrote The New York Times and illustrated perfectly the invulnerable feelings of a remote miss:
“I’m doing my best to avoid social contact, along with two other members of my household. We have sufficient supplies for a month. Despite that, one member insists on going out for trivial reasons, such as not liking the kind of apples we have. He’s 92. I’ve tried explaining and cajoling, using graphs and anecdotes to make the danger to all of us seem “real.” It doesn’t take. His risk of death is many times greater than mine, and he’s poking holes in a lifeboat we all have to rely on. What is the correct path?”
American culture expects certainty from science. Therein lies the problem with a new disease no medical provider or researcher had seen prior to November 2019. Action was required in effort to slow the spread with little to no data as a guide. Therefore, messages that seemed contradictory reached the public. “A mask less than N-95 grade will not protect you,” evolved to, “everyone should wear a homemade cloth mask.” As the pandemic evolved and data was gathered, new recommendations were presented. Unfortunately, such well-meaning and necessary changes led to confusion, mistrust, and conspiracy theories.
Psychologists have weighed in regarding other aspects of our culture that allow for the flourishing of misinformation. A photograph even loosely related to the information presented has been shown to increase the initial sense of trustworthiness. Simple repetition can also make a point seem more trustworthy. As social media pushes the daily deluge of information (with pictures!) to new heights, it is a small wonder misinformation remains in circulation.
Medicine’s Response
The science of COVID-19 carries phenomenal uncertainties, but the psychology of those who have suffered direct hits or near misses are the daily bedside challenge of all physicians, but particularly of hospitalists. We live at the front lines of disease – as one colleague put it to me, “we are the watchers on the wall.” Though we do not yet have our hoped-for, evidence-based treatment for this virus, we are familiar with acute illness. We know the rapid change of health to disease, and we know the chronically ill who suffer exacerbations of such illness. Supporting patients and their loved ones through those times is our daily practice.
On the other hand, those who have experienced only remote misses remain vulnerable in this pandemic, despite their feelings of invincibility. Those that feel invincible may be the least interested in our advice. This, too, is no strange position for a physician. We have tools to reach patients who do not reach out to us. Traditional media outlets have been saturated with headlines and talking points about this disease. Physicians who have taken to social media have been met with appreciation in some situations, but ignored, doubted, or shunned in others. NBC News reported an ED doctor’s attempt to dispel some COVID myths on social media. Unfortunately, his remarks were summarily dismissed. Through the frustration, we persevere.
Out of the many responsible authorities who help battle misinformation, the World Health Organization’s mythbusting website directly confronts many incorrect circulating ideas. My personal favorite at the time of this writing is: “Being able to hold your breath for 10 seconds or more without coughing or feeling discomfort DOES NOT mean you are free from COVID-19.”
For the policy and communication side of medicine in the midst of this pandemic, I will not claim to have a silver bullet. There are many intelligent, policy-minded people who are working on that very problem. However, as individual practitioners and as individual citizens, I can see two powerful tools that may help us move forward.
1) Confidence and humility: We live in a world of uncertainty, and we struggle against that every day. This pandemic has put our uncertainty clearly on display. However, we may also be confident in providing the best currently known care, even while holding the humility that what we know will likely change. Before COVID-19, we have all seen patients who received multiple different answers from multiple different providers. When I am willing to admit my uncertainty, I have witnessed patients’ skepticism transform into assuming an active role in their care.
For those who have suffered a direct hit or a near miss, honest conversations are vital to build a trusting physician-patient relationship. For the remote miss group, speaking candidly about our uncertainty displays our authenticity and helps combat conspiracy-type theories of ulterior motives. This becomes all the more crucial when new technologies are being deployed – a recent CBS News survey showed only 21% of Americans planned to get a COVID-19 vaccine “as soon as possible.”
2) Insight into our driving emotions: While the near miss patients are likely ready to continue prevention measures, the remote miss group is often more difficult. When we do have the opportunity to discuss actions to impede the virus’ spread with the remote miss group, understanding their potentially unrecognized motivations helps with that conversation. I have shared the story of the blitz and the remote miss and seen people connect the dots with their own emotions. Effective counseling – expecting the feelings of invulnerability amongst the remote miss group – can support endurance with prevention measures amongst that group and help flatten the curve.
Communicating our strengths, transparently discussing our weaknesses, and better understanding underlying emotions for ourselves and our patients may help save lives. As physicians, that is our daily practice, unchanged even as medicine takes center stage in our national conversation.
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